Spatiotemporal characterization of the first weeks of the Chikungunya epidemic outbreak in Cienfuegos, Cuba
1 Department of Epidemiology and Microbiology Laboratory, Provincial Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Microbiology, Cienfuegos, Cuba.
2 Department of Public Health, University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos, Cuba.
3 President of the Board EurAsia Heart Foundation, Zurich, Switzerland.
4 Department of Parasitology, Regional High Specialty Hospital (HARE), Dr. Juan Graham Casasús, México.
5 Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing, University of Medical Sciences, Villa Clara, Cuba.
Open Access Research Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 2026, 11(01), 026-035.
Article DOI: 10.53022/oarjms.2026.11.1.0016
Publication history:
Received on 21 December 2025; revised on 25 January 2026; accepted on 28 January 2026
Abstract:
The Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) poses a significant public health threat in the Americas. Cuba, with a more epidemic than endemic transmission profile, requires detailed characterization of outbreaks to implement effective control strategies. The objective of this study was to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first weeks of the CHIKV outbreak in Cienfuegos Province, Cuba. An observational, descriptive, and cross-sectional study was conducted in Cienfuegos (epidemiological weeks 33–43, 2025). Data on suspected, probable, and RT-PCR-confirmed cases were obtained from epidemiological surveillance records. Temporal trends were analyzed, and spatial analysis was performed using Moran's Global Index and kernel density to identify clusters. A total of 13.037 cases were reported (overall incidence: 3,902.3 per 100,000 population). The epidemic curve showed exponential growth, with a mean weekly incidence of 1,185 cases. The municipalities of Palmira (9,121.0*) and Cruces (8,201.3*) had the highest cumulative incidences. The spatial distribution of confirmed cases was heterogeneous, with the main clusters in Rodas (84.06*) and Cruces (80.58*). Spatial analysis revealed significant autocorrelation (Moran's Index = 0.45, p<0.001) and the formation of urban clusters that accounted for 79% of the cases. It is concluded that the outbreak in Cienfuegos was characterized by rapid spread and marked spatial heterogeneity, with clearly defined urban epicenters.
Keywords:
Chikungunya; Cienfuegos; Spatial analysis; Temporal trend
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